Analytics
Yes is at 59%, up 13 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
The high was 67.5% on 28 Jul 2026 and the low 36% on 4 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 58.5%; a month ago, 56%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 36% on 4 Jul 2026.
$2.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $911.75, with a 56.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 44 trades, $244.73 bought Yes and $223.62 bought No.
The largest Yes position is DuneMentat with 99 shares; the largest No position is pootytherewardfarmer with 70.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 25 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 11, 2:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 103 points · 2 Jul 2026 – 11 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 45.5% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 57.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DuneMentat | Yes | 99 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 70 |
| i2dt | No | 50 |
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-affordable-housing-bond-proposition
| AJSV |
| No |
| 48.51 |
| oneoftheppl | Yes | 25 |
| Slackjaw | Yes | 20 |
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 15 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 14 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 9 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 8.5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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