What is the “Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Aug 12, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-30s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($51.6K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 171 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 71.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 13, 8:29 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1786522800) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Polymarket odds & analytics

Vultaxbeta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencebtc-updown-5m-1786522800Updated Aug 13, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close Aug 12, 2026up-or-downcrypto-prices

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Observed Yes 100¢Observed No 0¢

24h Volume

$51.6K

Scheduled close

Aug 12, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Aug 13, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Aug 13, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

100.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

171

Wallets

171

Top 10 share

72%

Yes / No shares

0 / 12.34K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

277

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
mmk37	Down	6.65K	0.1%	$6.65K	Aug 12, 8:26 AM
NKPOL	Down	362.49	2.3%	$362.49

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Aug 12, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-30s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($51.6K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
mmk37	$0
NKPOL	$0
0x4c3a	$0
trillionaire8	$0
Phase2Unknown	$0
chishubiao	$0
patthemat	$0
Doblet	$0
polwatchdog	$0
sssssni1	$0
Jimmy-Whale	$0
lemusk	$0