Analytics
The Up side is at 44.5%, down 5.5 points from 50% at 25 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Across 23 price reads from 25 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC to 26 Oct 2026, 22:40 UTC, the highest read was 53% on 26 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC and the lowest 30% on 26 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC.
$4.75K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $6.02K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 99 trades, $1.38K bought Up and $323.66 bought Down.
The largest Up position is Frivolous-Insurance with 664 shares; the largest Down position is bosona with 413. Ten wallets hold 80.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 10:44 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsHourly closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 25 Oct, 23:00 UTC – 26 Oct, 22:00 UTC, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct, 23:00 UTC | 50.0% |
| 26 Oct, 22:00 UTC | 37.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Frivolous-Insurance | Up | 663.67 |
| bosona | Down | 412.61 |
| mo-money | Down | 327.64 |
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-4h-1793044800
| Anon455 |
| Down |
| 233.85 |
| Bonereaper | Up | 224.27 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Up | 181.21 |
| almach | Down | 171.68 |
| SIXTY-NINE | Up | 145.88 |
| Lively-Authenticity | Down | 134.58 |
| Jealous-Cluster-Handicap | Down | 120.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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