Analytics
The Canelo side is at 61%, down 5 points from 66% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 66% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 61% on 25 Oct 2026.
$9.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $24.57 since listing. The order book holds $19.29K, with a 14.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Canelo position is erFiodena with 15 shares; the largest Mbilli position is bokyb with 15.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 4:40 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Canelo price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 58%–70%
| Observed | Canelo price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 66.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 61.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| erFiodena | Canelo | 15 |
| bokyb | Mbilli | 15 |
| dominance13 | Mbilli | 9.57 |
This market will resolve to "Canelo" if Canelo Álvarez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Mbilli in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Mbilli" if Christian Mbilli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "50-50." This market will resolve based on the official result announced at the conclusion of the event. Any later change to that result, including an overturn to a No Contest, will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Boxing Council (WBC); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/boxing-canelo-alvarez-vs-christian-mbilli
| JerryAmoros |
| Canelo |
| 8.12 |
| alexherrera22 | Canelo | 1.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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