Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 58% on 28 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 169 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2025 to 12 Sep 2025, the highest close was 99.8% on 12 Sep 2025 and the lowest 58% on 28 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 69% on 2 Apr 2025. $117.19K traded over the market's life.
67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 13, 4:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 169 points, 28 Mar 2025 – 12 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2025 | 58.0% |
| 12 Sep 2025 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| topsecret17 | No | 13.73K |
| ojc | No | 9.01K |
| Profitable-Glue | No | 5.53K |
On March 26, the Brazilian Supreme Court ruled that Jair Bolsonaro will stand charges for an attempted coup. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-coup-2022-elections.html This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is found guilty of any charges related to the coup attempt by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Bolsonaro's charges are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bolsonaro-guilty
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Dim-Trace | No | 2.03K |
| neoseth | No | 1.45K |
| Punctual-Elite | No | 1.21K |
| Freeks | No | 847.77 |
| salocod | No | 816.81 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 730 |
| knowthefuture | No | 656.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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