Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 20 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 12.5% on 20 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2025. $15.49K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 2:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 20 Feb 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2025 | 12.5% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Destroidom | Yes | 409.77 |
| framefame | No | 0.02 |
| UbuntuTrading | Yes | 0.01 |
| BigSmolE | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is arrested between February 18 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bolsonaro-arrested-before-april
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| low.iq.games | No | 0.01 |
| split | No | 0.01 |
| JDULIA | No | 0.01 |
