Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Sep 16, 2026. As of Sep 16, 12:09 AM, Yes trades at 29.0¢, a 29.0% implied chance, $42.37K traded in the last 24 hours, $40.77K resting in the order book, a 2.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 15, 2026 to Sep 16, 2026 (Yes between 24.5% and 59.5%); 122 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 76.5% of the loaded shares; 438 recent public fills from 111 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-16-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| easyclap | Up | 6.57K |
| Impressive-Steak | Up | 6.56K |
| trulyalya1 | Down | 5.6K |
| ComTruise | Down | 3.53K |
| gobblewobble | Up | 2.91K |
| GoldenSpin | Down | 2.45K |
| coinfilippe | Down | 2.11K |
| horsewhiskers | Down | 1.59K |
| Niseko | Up | 1.2K |
| valtheothunder | Down | 1.11K |