What is the “Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on May 4, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance,…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($538.92K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 88 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 96.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated May 5, 5:46 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Vultaxbeta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencebitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026Updated May 5, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close May 4, 2026

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Observed Yes 100¢Observed No 0¢

24h Volume

$538.9K

Scheduled close

May 4, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

May 5, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

May 5, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

100.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

96%

Yes / No shares

0 / 160.66K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

201

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Staid-Grouper	Down	100K	0.1%	$100K	May 4, 3:55 PM
thebestquant	Down	22.5K	0.1%	$22.5K	May 4, 4:05 PM

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on May 4, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance,…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($538.92K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
Staid-Grouper	$0
thebestquant	$0
SingW	$0
Gimbuu	$0
zhang4515	$0
zhouke	$0
Identical-Schooner	$0
Worthless-Linen-Patentee	$0
frozenriver	$0
Zukko111	$0
Uneven-Breadfruit	$0
cryptodebil	$0