What is the “Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in December 2025, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 31, 2025 11:59 PM in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 1, 2025 12:00 AM in the ET timezone. The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

115 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-outperforms-sp-500-in-december) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?

Market referencebitcoin-outperforms-sp-500-in-decemberUpdated Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Resolved

Yes · settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$95.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

115

Wallets

115

Top 10 share

60%

Yes / No shares

100.88 / 10.4K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

146

Loaded notional

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
Batrak	sell	Yes	99.9%	403.46	Jan 1, 10:05 AM UTC
Bumpy-Troop	buy	No

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in December 2025, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 31, 2025 11:59 PM in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 1, 2025 12:00 AM in the ET timezone. The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

Batrak

sell

Yes

99.9%

403.46

Jan 1, 10:05 AM UTC

Bumpy-Troop

buy