Analytics
Trading ended on 23 Oct 2026 with the Positive side at 49.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 49.5% on 25 Oct 2026.
$44.2 has traded since listing.
The largest Positive position is ConstantineVIII with 34 shares; the largest Negative position is aandriy with 44.
Polymarket record as of Oct 25, 5:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Positive price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 44%–56%
| Observed | Positive price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 49.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aandriy | Negative | 44.2 |
| ConstantineVIII | Positive | 34.2 |
| bjprolo | Positive | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Friday, October 23, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-etf-flows-on-october-23-2026
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