Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$10.5K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 31, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 31 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 77%. Yes opened at 72% on 22 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 22 Jan 2026 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 77% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 70% on 29 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 75% on 30 Jan 2026. $10.49K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 22 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026, chart shows 65%–80%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Jan 2026	72.0%
31 Jan 2026	77.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	926
Bold Scout BD7E	No	586
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	527
pako	No	493.85

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final "Low" price below MicroStrategy’s reported “Avg BTC Cost” at any point between January 21, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. MicroStrategy’s average buy price will be taken from the “Avg BTC Cost” value shown in its publicly reported Bitcoin holdings table available at https://www.strategy.com/purchases Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or timeframes will not be considered.