Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 16 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 16.5% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Oct 2026.
Under 5.3 ranks fifth of the 6 outcomes in “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 22, 2026?”. 6.1 or more leads at 98%; 5.5 to 5.6 is at 2.1%.
$907.18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.73K since listing. The order book holds $1.68K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 48 trades, $90.9 bought Yes and $836.21 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 320 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 513. Ten wallets hold 73.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 23 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 10:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 512.72 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 319.99 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 97.96 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 22, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 22, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 22, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-22
| Swift Summit CA1B | Yes | 87.3 |
| mombil | No | 80.94 |
| Ainocry. | Yes | 80 |
| ergodiclab | No | 78.99 |
| Ivory Tide 2FA2 | No | 70.69 |
| bubububblebutt | No | 65.92 |
| 0xSPBB | Yes | 60.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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