Analytics
Yes is at 96.1%, up 73 points from 23.5% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.1% on 22 Oct 2026 and the lowest 23.5% on 21 Oct 2026.
6.1 or more is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 22, 2026?”, ahead of 5.5 to 5.6 at 3.3%.
$1.38K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.05K since listing. The order book holds $985.09, with a 7.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 59 trades, $1.02K bought Yes and $274.05 bought No.
The largest Yes position is ergodiclab with 427 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 513. Ten wallets hold 87.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 23 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 96.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 512.72 |
| ergodiclab | Yes | 426.7 |
| johnpudricion | Yes | 324.72 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 22, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 22, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 22, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-22
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting |
| No |
| 298 |
| 2B9S | No | 240 |
| to-the-moooon | Yes | 237.14 |
| Flexquake1 | Yes | 110 |
| 0xSPBB | No | 92.38 |
| Ivory Tide 2FA2 | Yes | 87.39 |
| Ainocry. | Yes | 80 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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