Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Oct 2026.
$310.83 traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 16, 6:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 15 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–12%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 6.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 144.63 |
| Changi-Airport2 | Yes | 59.93 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| erdos-baconator | Yes | 46 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
| Violet Sphinx 7925 | Yes | 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 8 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 14, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 14, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 15, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 14, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 15, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-14
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