Analytics
Resolved Trump on 6 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Trump at 99.6%. The Biden side opened at 36% on 28 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2024 to 6 Jul 2024, the highest close was 36% on 28 Jun 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 3 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 4.5% on 29 Jun 2024. $19.54K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 7, 11:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Biden price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 28 Jun 2024 – 6 Jul 2024
| Observed | Biden price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2024 | 36.0% |
| 6 Jul 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Trump | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biden-vs-trump-who-polls-higher-1-week-after-debate
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