Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 27 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 19% on 5 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 19% on 5 Sep 2024. $55.67K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2024 | 9.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| khetty | Yes | 2.12K |
| pierceheaven | Yes | 683.82 |
| POZDNYAKOV | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Belarus and Ukraine between August 26, 2024, and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Belarus and Ukrainian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Belarus, Ukraine, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/belarus-x-ukraine-military-clash-by-sep-30
| Yes |
| 111.11 |
| ER01MM | Yes | 100 |
| Jjo-300 | Yes | 35.71 |
| stomas | No | 11.11 |
| Worthless-Nod | No | 0.04 |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 0.02 |
| DrK666 | No | 0.01 |
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