Analytics
The Carlos Alcaraz side is at 100%, up 46 points from 53.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 100% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 53.5% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 100% on 30 Oct 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz”.
$12.48K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $19.79K since listing. The order book holds $27.6K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 208 trades, $1.99K bought Carlos Alcaraz and $3.57K bought Tommy Paul; the largest was a $2.28K sell of Carlos Alcaraz at 99.9¢.
The largest Carlos Alcaraz position is Novelty8 with 5K shares; the largest Tommy Paul position is Azure Voyager 5248 with 4.8K. Ten wallets hold 77.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 6 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:53 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Carlos Alcaraz price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Carlos Alcaraz price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 53.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 100.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Novelty8 | Carlos Alcaraz | 5K |
| Azure Voyager 5248 | Tommy Paul | 4.76K |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3.58K |
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Tommy Paul, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tommy Paul." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-alcaraz-2026-10-30
| Elated-Lentil | Carlos Alcaraz | 2.04K |
| Difficult-Artificer | Tommy Paul | 1.98K |
| Slight-Spud | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.89K |
| Carefree-Significance | Tommy Paul | 1.24K |
| Crimson Orbit F84E | Carlos Alcaraz | 1.21K |
| VeryLucky888 | Tommy Paul | 751.52 |
| omnibus-076daa | Tommy Paul | 721.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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