Analytics
Resolved Nick Hardt on 27 Oct 2026.
The last price read before settlement had Nick Hardt at 50.5%. The Juan Manuel La Serna side was at 49.5% at 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC, the earliest read in hand. Before it settled, across 6 price reads from 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC to 27 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC, the price held at 49.5%. $5 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 10:53 PM UTC
6-hour closes of the Juan Manuel La Serna price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 25 Oct, 12:00 UTC – 27 Oct, 06:00 UTC, chart shows 40%–55%
| Observed | Juan Manuel La Serna price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 49.5% |
| 27 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 49.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DCAAA | Juan Manuel La Serna | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Nick Hardt in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna" if Juan Manuel La Serna wins by 2 or more sets than Nick Hardt, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Nick Hardt." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Juan Manuel La Serna can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Nick Hardt." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-hardt-serna-2026-10-26
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