
Resolved Over on 28 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Over at 100%. The Over side opened at 49% on 26 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 26 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the highest close was 100% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 49% on 26 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 100% on 28 Oct 2026.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 12:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Over price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 26 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Over price |
|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | 49.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 100.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This market refers to the tennis match between Nick Hardt and Juan Manuel La Serna in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official Challenger statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-hardt-serna-2026-10-26
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