Analytics
Resolved Nick Hardt on 28 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Nick Hardt at 100%. The Juan Manuel La Serna side opened at 50% on 27 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 50 points down, to 0.1% on 28 Oct 2026. $9.5 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 10:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Juan Manuel La Serna price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Juan Manuel La Serna price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tennisgeek | Juan Manuel La Serna | 9.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna" if Juan Manuel La Serna wins 1.5 or more total games than Nick Hardt in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nick Hardt". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Juan Manuel La Serna could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Nick Hardt". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-hardt-serna-2026-10-26
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