
Resolved No on 25 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89.5%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 17 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 17 May 2026 to 18 May 2026, the highest close was 13.5% on 17 May 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 18 May 2026. $5.6K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 25, 3:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 17 May 2026 – 18 May 2026, chart shows 6%–18%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | 13.5% |
| 18 May 2026 | 10.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 53.49K |
| alohaa | Yes | 30K |
| User8291 | Yes | 1.01K |
| vsbot1985 | Yes | 818.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arch-elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26
| Oboltusova | Yes | 687.77 |
| freshradiance | Yes | 300 |
| amy888 | Yes | 300 |
| Humming-Motorcar | Yes | 300 |
| dannyboy16 | Yes | 299.99 |
| Near-Entirety | Yes | 272.73 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page