Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 17 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 261 daily closes on record from 17 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 24.5% on 25 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 22 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 24% on 24 Apr 2025. $10.29K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 261 points, 17 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2025 | 16.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 565 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 249 |
| Indigo Beacon A106 | No | 225.19 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces that she is running for Senate in the 2026 midterm election, between April 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by AOC will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by AOC (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/aoc-announces-senate-run-in-2025
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 148 |
| lissartter | Yes | 136.52 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 89.99 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 87 |
| GalacticNomad0 | Yes | 78.13 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 76 |
| Bigiorn | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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