Analytics
Yes is at 2.7%, down 6.3 points from 9% when the market opened on 9 Dec 2025.
The high was 9.5% on 10 Dec 2025 and the low 1.7% on 15 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 3.2%; a month ago, 2.1%.
$5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $173.25K since listing. The order book holds $27.93K, with a 1.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $69.97 bought Yes and $14.41K bought No; the largest was a $2.7K sell of No at 97.9¢.
The largest Yes position is Spotted-Chasuble with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 10.6K. Ten wallets hold 60.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 73 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 6:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 296 points, 9 Dec 2025 – 20 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2025 | 9.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 2.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 10.65K |
| lava-lava | No | 3.65K |
| Spotted-Chasuble | Yes | 2.67K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/any-country-withdraws-from-eu-before-2027
| BafanaBafana |
| No |
| 2.36K |
| maxtrant | Yes | 2.04K |
| Watery-Canopy | Yes | 2.02K |
| LadyVanga | Yes | 1.67K |
| Well-Worn-Integer | Yes | 1.65K |
| Swift Orbit 65DC | Yes | 1.23K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 1K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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