Analytics
Resolved No on 9 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.1%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 32.5% on 1 May 2026 and the low 1.9% on 8 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 5% on 2 May 2026. $11.73K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 10, 4:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 1 May 2026 – 9 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 32.5% |
| 9 May 2026 | 1.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 602.75 |
| arcsin09 | Yes | 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 50 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| daroghi | Yes | 30 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| inbuilt6d | Yes | 5.56 |
| wwder | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 4.99 |
| Charming-Trillion | Yes | 1.75 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On March 5, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) formally designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk to national security, effectively barring the Department of Defense and its contractors from collaborating with Anthropic. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-informed-anthropic-it-is-supply-chain-risk-official-says-2026-03-05/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the designation is officially rescinded, withdrawn, or nullified by a competent authority by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The designation may be removed through executive reversal, agency reversal, or a final court ruling. Executive actions or guidance that merely bypass the designation, allowing U.S. agencies to continue using Anthropic’s AI despite the supply chain risk label, will not qualify. Court rulings that strike down or invalidate the designation as unlawful will qualify. Court orders that only temporarily block, stay, or enjoin the designation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropics-supply-chain-risk-designation-removed-by
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