Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 27% on 28 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 28 Dec 2024 to 1 Feb 2025, the highest close was 39.5% on 1 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 22.1% on 20 Jan 2025. $78.04K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 9:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 28 Dec 2024 – 1 Feb 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Dec 2024 | 27.0% |
| 1 Feb 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 357.5 |
| SPIDERBET | Yes | 217.37 |
| Stranger4711 | Yes | 76.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On December 18, 2024, Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in California over the H5N1 bird flu outbreak. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/osint613/status/1869497993977823355 This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of emergency directly related to an outbreak of H5N1 is declared in any state other than California by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be announcements from the relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-state-declare-a-state-of-emergency-over-bird-flu-before-february
| Yes |
| 72.52 |
| a.jacko10 | Yes | 55.83 |
| flinnbella | Yes | 32.26 |
| kekule | Yes | 28.82 |
| jp900 | Yes | 17.24 |
| Expensive-Replication | Yes | 16.13 |
| Qubi | Yes | 5.17 |
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