Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.9%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 11 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2024 to 1 Jul 2024, the highest close was 69.5% on 12 Jun 2024 and the lowest 3.1% on 1 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 3.1% on 1 Jul 2024. $913.85 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 3:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 11 Jun 2024 – 1 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2024 | 57.5% |
| 1 Jul 2024 | 3.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden's approval rating on FiveThirtyEight is recorded as being lower than 37.4% (i.e. 37.3% or lower) between June 10 and June 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Only finalized data points may be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-record-low-biden-approval-rating-in-june
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