Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 16 Oct 2025, the highest close was 29.5% on 27 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 16 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 8% on 2 Oct 2025. $26.64K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 17, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 16 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 29.5% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 451.86 |
| sam20 | Yes | 229.73 |
| 7fresh7 | Yes | 156.52 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 121 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between September 25, and October 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's recent request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-nato-article-4-by-october-15
| SoldierAlexx | Yes | 113.47 |
| Composed-Rhythm | Yes | 105.49 |
| tryrobo | Yes | 100 |
| alean | Yes | 58.82 |
| secretduck | Yes | 55.56 |
| LPanov | Yes | 35.71 |
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