Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 38%. Yes opened at 59.5% on 11 May 2025. Before it settled, the high was 59.5% on 11 May 2025 and the low 38% on 12 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 38% on 12 May 2025. $83.33K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 14, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 11 May 2025 – 12 May 2025, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 May 2025 | 59.5% |
| 12 May 2025 | 38.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| siddz | No | 1.04K |
| IntrepidMeadow785 | No | 266 |
| Sexigarv | No | 258.39 |
| OptionsGod | No | 200 |
| Infatuated-Profit | No | 161.29 |
| isildursheir | No | 5 |
| gurdol | No | 1.93 |
| lestAAAA | Yes | 0.02 |
| UxorSatanas | No | 0.01 |
| NiGriMa671 | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On May 10, India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire (see: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05/10/world/pakistan-india-kashmir), however continued hostilities have been reported (see: https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1921228906230628691) This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between India and Pakistan is announced between May 10, 12:00 PM and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announced agreement by both India and Pakistan to reinstate the previous agreed upon May 10th ceasefire deal will qualify. If the agreement is announced by both countries before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Qualifying agreements must be announced by both countries. A formal, signed agreement between the countries is not necessary to resolve this market, however explicit statements made by both countries that they are ceasing military action for an overlapping timeframe is required. Mere de-escalation or an absence of military activity will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" without explicit public statements from both sides indicating a ceasefire. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply a specific theater, or type of military action will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both India and Pakistan.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-india-x-pakistan-ceasefire-announced-by-friday
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