Another 5.0 or above earthquake in Greece by September 30?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 2, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.8K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 2, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 17 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2025 to 2 Oct 2025, the highest close was 40.5% on 17 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 2 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 18% on 18 Sep 2025. $22.84K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 4:37 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 17 Sep 2025 – 2 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
17 Sep 2025	40.5%
2 Oct 2025	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Rapid Falcon CFD5	Yes	3.9K
faith14921	Yes	405.86
satbro	Yes	27.78
niro996	No	13.41

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 5 or greater occurs within the terrestrial or maritime borders of Greece between September 16, and September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/). For the purposes of this market, the epicenter must fall within the terrestrial or maritime boarders of Greece to qualify. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.