Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 7 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 180 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 12.5% on 7 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 6.5% on 8 Jul 2025. $50.83K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 180 points, 7 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2025 | 12.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Joe-Biden | Yes | 3.87K |
| vij | Yes | 833.33 |
| lissartter | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate wins a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party. Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation. Candidates listed on the ballot as members of another established party (e.g., Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc.) will not qualify, even if they express support for or claim affiliation with the American Party or Elon Musk. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/america-party-wins-a-federal-or-gubernatorial-election-in-2025
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 200 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 90 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 75 |
| Yukaii | Yes | 52.15 |
| Dramatic-Ego | Yes | 50 |
| Owwwnn | Yes | 42.44 |
| Cronnozzz | Yes | 38.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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