Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 29 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 219 daily closes on record from 29 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 35.5% on 3 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 33.5% on 6 Jul 2025. $375.69K traded over the market's life.
142 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 219 points, 29 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | 31.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gopfan2 | Yes | 33.47K |
| lissartter | Yes | 6.75K |
| LR1 | Yes | 2.16K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2025
| Quadratus | Yes | 2K |
| InsiderrrZ | Yes | 1.55K |
| SemyonMarmeladov | Yes | 1.51K |
| boogz | Yes | 1.21K |
| FG56FGHF | Yes | 1.19K |
| africanmonkey | Yes | 1K |
| ToFr | Yes | 682.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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