Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 23 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 4.5% on 15 Nov 2025. $29.02K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 398 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 249 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market resolves “Yes” if 50-year GSE-eligible mortgages are approved by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying approval requires that either: A) The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) officially approves 50-year mortgages. An approval alone will qualify, regardless of whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac subsequently update their guidelines. B) Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac officially makes 50-year mortgages eligible for purchase or guaranty. Only changes regarding new-origination, first-lien, fully amortizing 50-year mortgages will qualify. Other arrangements (e.g., limited pilots, post-origination term changes, junior-lien or revolving products, loss-mitigation programs, etc.) will not be considered. The primary resolution source is official information from the FHFA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/50-year-gse-eligible-mortgages-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 206 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 163 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 87 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 79 |
| lissartter | Yes | 66.09 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 61.6 |
| DeuceyMania | Yes | 49.98 |
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