Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 17 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 17 Apr 2025 to 1 Jun 2025, the highest close was 2.5% on 17 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jun 2025. $30.18K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 17 Apr 2025 – 1 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2025 | 2.5% |
| 1 Jun 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| unlovable | Yes | 326.88 |
| CRacking | Yes | 200 |
| Belated-Accomplishment | Yes | 115.84 |
| Restakeme | Yes | 60 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that 4chan is operated or directly controlled by U.S. federal agencies is made public by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from U.S. federal agencies confirming such involvement will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Mere surveillance or intelligence gathering by federal agencies will not qualify. Evidence of isolated employment of 4chan staff by federal agencies will not count, however evidence of systemic or coordinated staffing of 4chan employees with federal agents will qualify. Unverified allegations, anonymous claims, or documents not substantiated by credible reporting will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, as well as official statements from U.S. government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/4chan-confirmed-fed-operation
| zzorephair | No | 1.99 |
| Firsthand-Download | No | 1.57 |
| oardo | No | 1.34 |
| Mature-Stitcher | No | 0.04 |
| split | No | 0.02 |
| JDULIA | No | 0.01 |
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