Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 8 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 8 Oct 2024 and the low 0.3% on 1 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 23.5% on 9 Oct 2024. $35.51K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 7:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 25 points · 8 Oct 2024 – 1 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2024 | 50.0% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| she | Yes | 135 |
| republican | Yes | 10 |
| budii-105 | No | 1.08 |
| Cooked | No | 0.09 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between October 6 and October 31, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previous available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/30-year-mortgage-rate-below-6-before-election
| Figyrako | No | 0.07 |
| Kuyjr | Yes | 0.05 |
| akhen | No | 0.03 |
| OneBadBet | No | 0.03 |
| Tareyun | No | 0.03 |
| averageuser | Yes | 0.03 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
