Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 113 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 29 Mar 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32.5% on 3 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 21 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 10.5% on 4 Dec 2025. $39.42K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 3:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 32.5% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2K |
| web34ever | Yes | 222.22 |
| magicbed | Yes | 148.82 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/odds-of-republican-party-winning-the-house-in-2026-hit-above-50-by-march-31-2026
| Yes |
| 100 |
| LoneTrader | Yes | 100 |
| dreamingToBeAGuru | Yes | 100 |
| Nexho8200 | Yes | 70.31 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 30 |
| Golden Scout 090D | Yes | 27.02 |
| emapol5 | Yes | 26.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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