2025 September second hottest on record?

Resolved

Yes, settled Nov 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$268.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Nov 14, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 14 Nov 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 85.5%. Yes opened at 17% on 30 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 30 Aug 2025 to 14 Nov 2025, the highest close was 88.6% on 12 Nov 2025 and the lowest 2.8% on 1 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 66% on 8 Oct 2025. $268.12K traded over the market's life.

50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 16, 12:33 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 30 Aug 2025 – 14 Nov 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Aug 2025	17.0%
14 Nov 2025	85.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	66.53K
nibbi1	No	557.48
Cookedtan	No	255.73

10 of 50 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2025 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If 2025 September is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2025 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.