2025 March hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 10, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$716.9K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 10, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 18% on 28 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2025 to 10 Apr 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 8 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 8 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 21% on 13 Mar 2025. $716.93K traded over the market's life.

24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 12, 12:30 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 28 Feb 2025 – 10 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Feb 2025	18.0%
10 Apr 2025	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
RIPWEATHERMAN	Yes	54.65K
2hot2handle	Yes	18.84K
alxlabelle	Yes	6.08K
deanmax	Yes	908.65

10 of 24 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior March when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for March 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for March, and if 2025 March is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 March is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.