2025 January hottest on record?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$3.5M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 11 Feb 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 35% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2024 to 11 Feb 2025, the highest close was 99.7% on 11 Feb 2025 and the lowest 32.5% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 49% on 2 Jan 2025. $3.49M traded over the market's life.

158 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 12, 6:05 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 11 Feb 2025

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
VincentVanGogh	No	120.61K
Evanosull123	No	23.17K
GiaGianni	No	20.91K
Brimstones	No	19.02K

10 of 158 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior January when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for January 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for January, and if 2025 January is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 January is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.