2025 August second hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$49.9K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 6% on 7 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2025 to 11 Sep 2025, the highest close was 6% on 7 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 10 Sep 2025. $49.94K traded over the market's life.

24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 12, 4:36 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 7 Aug 2025 – 11 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
7 Aug 2025	6.0%
11 Sep 2025	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	5.14K
dzP3	Yes	1.56K
Aviatona	Yes	806.4
buyhighsellLower	Yes	667.12

10 of 24 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any prior August when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for August 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for August, and if 2025 August is higher than all but one previous data point, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 August is tied for second highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA August be used. If no information for August 2025 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.