20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$42.0K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 18 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 18 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 41% on 19 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 17.5% on 22 Nov 2025. $42.03K traded over the market's life.

44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 18 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Nov 2025	27.5%
1 Jan 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Scrawny-Mole	Yes	1.08K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	437
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	246.94

10 of 44 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

There are currently around 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza, separated from the Hamas-controlled portion of Gaza by the “Yellow Line”. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kushner-israel-trapped-hamas-fighters-issue-bedevils-gaza-truce-progress-2025-11-10/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Israel allows 20 or more Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portions of Gaza to leave to areas not under Israeli control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 20 or more Hamas fighters being allowed to leave to Hamas-controlled portions of Gaza, third-party countries, or any other areas not under Israeli control will all qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Transfers to Israeli detention outside of Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count. Escapes, rescues, or other methods of leaving Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count. The relevant Hamas fighters must be credibly reported to have been allowed to leave Israeli-controlled Gaza within this market’s timeframe. Announcements alone that the fighters will be allowed to leave will not qualify. The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.