1,475+ Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 17, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$34.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 17, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 17 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.3%. Yes opened at 83.5% on 4 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2025 to 17 Sep 2025, the highest close was 98.4% on 14 Sep 2025 and the lowest 67% on 5 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 67% on 5 Sep 2025. $34.36K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 18, 4:48 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 4 Sep 2025 – 17 Sep 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Sep 2025	83.5%
17 Sep 2025	98.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
KimbalMusk	No	6.18K
Thankful-Cycle	No	999.98
PhongLeXBT	No	739.18
bra361	No	461.25

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 1,475 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.