Question 1

What is the “100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: 100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 22, 2024. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 100 or more confirmed cases of H5 Bird Flu in humans in the territory of the United States of America during the 2024 outbreak according to the CDC case counter as of November 22, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html). If the counter is not available another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter will qualify, regardless of reports from…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($69.69K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 5 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 100.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Nov 24, 5:02 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/100-bird-flu-cases-by-friday) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Nov 23, 12:00 AM	0.3%	0.3%
Nov 22, 12:00 AM	0.4%	0.4%
Nov 21, 12:00 AM	2.1%	2.1%

100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday?

Questions about this market