What is the “100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: 100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 23 Nov 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 100 or more confirmed cases of H5 Bird Flu in humans in the territory of the United States of America during the 2024 outbreak according to the CDC case counter as of November 22, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html). If the counter is not available another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter will qualify, regardless of reports from…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

5 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Nov 24, 5:02 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/100-bird-flu-cases-by-friday) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: 100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday?

Market reference100-bird-flu-cases-by-fridayUpdated Nov 24, 2024 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Nov 23, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$69.7K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 23, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Nov 24, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Nov 24, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

2.13K / 0

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

354

Wallets

277

Loaded notional

$38.61K

No buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Nov 23, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-7.2 pts

Range

0.3% - 7.5%

Nov 19, 12:00 AM UTC to Nov 23, 12:00 AM UTC

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
noreasapa	buy	No	99.9%	999.97	Nov 23, 5:00 AM UTC
BlackSky123	buy	No

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: 100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 23 Nov 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 100 or more confirmed cases of H5 Bird Flu in humans in the territory of the United States of America during the 2024 outbreak according to the CDC case counter as of November 22, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html). If the counter is not available another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter will qualify, regardless of reports from…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

noreasapa

buy

99.9%

999.97

Nov 23, 5:00 AM UTC

BlackSky123

buy