Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 21 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 21 Jun 2025 to 27 Jun 2025, the highest close was 20.5% on 21 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 4% on 24 Jun 2025. $22.31K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 29, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 21 Jun 2025 – 27 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jun 2025 | 20.5% |
| 27 Jun 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Tmuirhead | Yes | 202.95 |
| YeagerBombs7 | Yes | 195.96 |
| Ja121 | Yes | 167.5 |
| Lukatsigro | Yes | 92.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on June 27, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-386
| qwertzu | Yes | 50 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 41.62 |
| Berginator | Yes | 20 |
| Raoulre | Yes | 7.69 |
| ineedmoreiq | No | 0.01 |
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