Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 19.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2025 to 2 May 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 26 Apr 2025 and the lowest 6% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 18% on 30 Apr 2025. $138.6K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 12:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 26 Apr 2025 – 2 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2025 | 50.5% |
| 2 May 2025 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Petros | No | 50 |
| razortrick | No | 22.17 |
| hillerd | No | 1.18 |
| Newshound | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on May 2, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/10-year-treasury-yield-4pt3-friday-may-2
| ghvgh | Yes | 0.01 |
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