Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by June 30?No | sell | 3.15 | $0.950 | $2.99 | May 15, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 1.04 |
| $0.720 |
| $0.75 |
| May 15, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No | sell | 3.2 | $0.950 | $3.04 | May 15, 2026 |
 Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.41 | $0.920 | $5.9 | May 15, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.14 | $0.680 | $0.1 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.1 | $0.690 | $0.07 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.26 | $0.690 | $0.18 | Apr 22, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 4.06 | $0.450 | $1.83 | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.3 | $0.710 | $0.21 | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.23 | $0.710 | $0.16 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.29 | $0.650 | $0.19 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.930 | $3 | Apr 21, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 0.52 | $0.650 | $0.34 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 0.55 | $0.710 | $0.39 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.19 | $0.940 | $3 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.17 | $0.780 | $0.91 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.11 | $0.790 | $1.67 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 0.12 | $0.800 | $0.1 | Apr 21, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 14.3 | $0.170 | $2.43 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.04 | $0.660 | $0.03 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.48 | $0.670 | $3 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.040 | $2 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.060 | $3 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes | sell | 5.35 | $0.440 | $2.35 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.210 | $3 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 3.89 | $0.610 | $2.37 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 3.89 | $0.610 | $2.37 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.36 | $0.560 | $3 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No | sell | 4.28 | $0.220 | $0.94 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No | sell | 0.21 | $0.310 | $0.07 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No | sell | 6.23 | $0.310 | $1.93 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No | buy | 10.71 | $0.280 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 5.35 | $0.530 | $2.84 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 0.02 | $0.310 | $0.01 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.36 | $0.560 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes | sell | 4 | $0.410 | $1.64 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.89 | $0.280 | $2.21 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.89 | $0.380 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 5.55 | $0.430 | $2.39 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.540 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 12 | $0.200 | $2.4 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.250 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No | sell | 3.12 | $0.961 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No | buy | 3.13 | $0.960 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
 Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No | sell | 5.14 | $0.162 | $0.83 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No | sell | 13.63 | $0.156 | $2.13 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No | sell | 8.5 | $0.191 | $1.62 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No | buy | 13.64 | $0.220 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No | buy | 13.64 | $0.220 | $3 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.2 | $0.630 | $0.76 | Apr 20, 2026 |