Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 72.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.9% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 18% on 26 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 73 points up, to 99.7% on 28 Apr 2026. $20.89M traded over the market's life.
591 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 12:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 72.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CQCW | No | 482.19K |
| Hawaiiii | No | 115K |
| RegularGMan | No | 110.38K |
| JIVIKA | No | 101.61K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-extended-by
| DesiTurbanator | No | 100K |
| Pakpakpakpak | No | 100K |
| goasg | No | 87.49K |
| Menacing-Snuggle | No | 58.7K |
| Polloshermaos | No | 57.15K |
| skhvv | No | 49.99K |
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