Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?Yes | buy | 35.06 | $0.180 | $6.31 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 1.43K |
| $0.007 |
| $10 |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 285.71 | $0.070 | $20 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.200 | $500 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 120 | $0.380 | $45.6 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | sell | 263.15 | $0.331 | $87.21 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 263.16 | $0.380 | $100 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 263.16 | $0.380 | $100 | Feb 22, 2025 |
 Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | sell | 113.63 | $0.940 | $106.81 | Jan 25, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?No | sell | 31.25 | $0.998 | $31.19 | Jan 25, 2025 |
 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | sell | 33.33 | $0.300 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?No | sell | 97.56 | $0.028 | $2.74 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | sell | 719.88 | $0.011 | $8.02 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?No | buy | 31.25 | $0.640 | $20 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.300 | $10 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | sell | 550 | $0.051 | $28.19 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No | sell | 42.59 | $0.940 | $40.03 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No | buy | 42.6 | $0.939 | $40 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 580.22 | $0.069 | $40 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 541.44 | $0.074 | $40 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?No | buy | 97.56 | $0.410 | $40 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week?No | sell | 12.19 | $0.920 | $11.21 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No | sell | 143.47 | $0.990 | $142.04 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | sell | 80.64 | $0.360 | $29.03 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No | buy | 64.1 | $0.780 | $50 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No | buy | 63.29 | $0.790 | $50 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?Yes | buy | 148.23 | $0.675 | $100 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No | buy | 16.08 | $0.622 | $10 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week?No | buy | 12.2 | $0.820 | $10 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 2.78K | $0.009 | $25 | Jan 20, 2025 |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 2.78K | $0.009 | $25 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Will Biden say "inflation" during farewell address?Yes | buy | 30.86 | $0.810 | $25 | Jan 15, 2025 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | buy | 113.64 | $0.880 | $100 | Jan 15, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | buy | 80.65 | $0.310 | $25 | Jan 15, 2025 |
 National Guard at college Palestine protest in April?Yes | sell | 965 | $0.001 | $0.97 | Apr 30, 2024 |
| National Guard at college Palestine protest in April?Yes | sell | 99 | $0.001 | $0.1 | Apr 30, 2024 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.005 | $1 | Apr 30, 2024 |
| National Guard at college Palestine protest in April?Yes | buy | 1.06K | $0.022 | $23 | Apr 30, 2024 |