Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Jul 9, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 5.71 |
| $0.700 |
| $4 |
| Jul 9, 2025 |
 Israel x Syria security deal before September?No | sell | 20.3 | $0.740 | $15.02 | Jul 9, 2025 |
 Yoon arrested before September?No | sell | 22.72 | $0.060 | $1.36 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Yoon in jail before August?No | sell | 17.24 | $0.160 | $2.76 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Yoon arrested by July 15?No | buy | 81.72 | $0.184 | $15 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.300 | $5 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Trump issue a Gold Card before August?Yes | buy | 31.21 | $0.032 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.600 | $5 | Jul 4, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.500 | $5 | Jul 3, 2025 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?Yes | buy | 43.48 | $0.023 | $1 | Jul 3, 2025 |
 US forces in Iran in 2025?No | sell | 12.04 | $0.880 | $10.6 | Jul 1, 2025 |
 Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?No | sell | 18.74 | $0.690 | $12.93 | Jul 1, 2025 |
 Will Trump say “Autopen” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?No | buy | 8.2 | $0.610 | $5 | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?Yes | buy | 17.86 | $0.560 | $10 | Jun 29, 2025 |
| Israel x Syria security deal before September?No | buy | 10.87 | $0.460 | $5 | Jun 29, 2025 |
| Yoon in jail before August?No | buy | 17.24 | $0.290 | $5 | Jun 29, 2025 |
| Yoon arrested before September?No | buy | 22.73 | $0.220 | $5 | Jun 29, 2025 |
| Yoon arrested by July 15?No | buy | 10 | $0.500 | $5 | Jun 29, 2025 |
| Israel x Syria security deal before September?No | buy | 9.43 | $0.530 | $5 | Jun 28, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Jun 28, 2025 |
| Will Trump say “God / Hell” 10+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?No | sell | 3.27 | $0.620 | $2.03 | Jun 28, 2025 |
 Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?No | sell | 22.27 | $0.797 | $17.75 | Jun 27, 2025 |
 Iran Nuke in 2025?No | sell | 28.4 | $0.880 | $24.99 | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?No | buy | 22.28 | $0.808 | $18 | Jun 26, 2025 |
 Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.070 | $2 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?No | buy | 10.64 | $0.470 | $5 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Will Trump say “Autopen” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?No | buy | 4 | $0.750 | $3 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Will Trump say “God / Hell” 10+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?No | buy | 3.28 | $0.610 | $2 | Jun 26, 2025 |
 Will Obama congratulate Mamdani by Friday?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Jun 26, 2025 |
 Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?No | buy | 8.93 | $0.560 | $5 | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?No | buy | 4 | $0.750 | $3 | Jun 25, 2025 |
 Khamenei seen in public before July?No | sell | 10.63 | $0.500 | $5.32 | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Khamenei seen in public before July?No | buy | 10.64 | $0.470 | $5 | Jun 25, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No | buy | 5.95 | $0.840 | $5 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?Yes | buy | 10.53 | $0.190 | $2 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?No | sell | 13.51 | $0.280 | $3.78 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?No | buy | 13.51 | $0.370 | $5 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| US forces in Iran in 2025?No | buy | 12.05 | $0.830 | $10 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Iran / Israel" 15+ times during his NATO speech?Yes | buy | 11.9 | $0.420 | $5 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?No | sell | 17.91 | $0.500 | $8.96 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Will Rutte say "Poland" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Yes | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Will Rutte say "Defense" 20+ times during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Yes | sell | 1.56 | $0.760 | $1.19 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal before August?No | sell | 24.19 | $0.860 | $20.8 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Trump x Khamenei talk before July?Yes | sell | 59.62 | $0.055 | $3.3 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?Yes | buy | 41.93 | $0.477 | $20 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 North Korea missile test by June 30?No | buy | 12.2 | $0.820 | $10 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 U.S. fertility rate up in Q1 2025?Yes | sell | 5.26 | $0.280 | $1.47 | Jun 21, 2025 |
| Trump x Khamenei talk before July?Yes | buy | 47.86 | $0.042 | $2 | Jun 21, 2025 |
| Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?No | buy | 8.82 | $0.340 | $3 | Jun 20, 2025 |