Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | sell | 42 | $0.740 | $31.08 | Jun 21, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 42 |
| $0.740 |
| $31.08 |
| Jun 21, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 1.21 | $0.570 | $0.69 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 44 | $0.730 | $32.12 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 66 | $0.330 | $21.78 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?Yes | buy | 33 | $0.020 | $0.66 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.490 | $17.15 | Jun 3, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes | buy | 66 | $0.070 | $4.62 | May 31, 2026 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No | sell | 11 | $0.640 | $7.04 | May 31, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No | buy | 47 | $0.640 | $30.08 | May 31, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No | sell | 31 | $0.954 | $29.57 | May 30, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No | buy | 31 | $0.958 | $29.7 | May 30, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.022 | $0.15 | May 30, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No | sell | 5 | $0.993 | $4.97 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No | buy | 34 | $0.985 | $33.49 | May 28, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 36 | $0.933 | $33.59 | May 28, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No | sell | 48 | $0.778 | $37.34 | May 28, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No | buy | 48 | $0.780 | $37.44 | May 28, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes | buy | 18 | $0.256 | $4.61 | May 26, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 38 | $0.956 | $36.33 | May 26, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | sell | 64 | $0.630 | $40.32 | May 25, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 64 | $0.630 | $40.32 | May 25, 2026 |
 Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No | sell | 3 | $0.990 | $2.97 | Jul 15, 2025 |
 Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025?No | sell | 9 | $0.789 | $7.1 | Jun 25, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May?No | buy | 1.72 | $0.990 | $1.7 | May 25, 2025 |
 Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No | buy | 1.72 | $0.986 | $1.7 | May 1, 2025 |
 Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No | buy | 8 | $0.953 | $7.62 | Apr 17, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April?No | buy | 9 | $0.978 | $8.8 | Apr 15, 2025 |
 Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No | sell | 5 | $0.897 | $4.49 | Apr 13, 2025 |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No | buy | 10 | $0.899 | $8.99 | Apr 13, 2025 |
 Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?No | buy | 9 | $0.986 | $8.87 | Apr 12, 2025 |
 Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?Yes | sell | 12 | $0.752 | $9.02 | Apr 12, 2025 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?No | sell | 9 | $0.978 | $8.8 | Apr 12, 2025 |
| Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No | buy | 12 | $0.977 | $11.72 | Apr 11, 2025 |
 Will the AFD be part of the next German government?No | buy | 12 | $0.983 | $11.8 | Apr 7, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No | sell | 12 | $0.985 | $11.82 | Apr 7, 2025 |
 Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup?No | buy | 12 | $0.978 | $11.74 | Apr 6, 2025 |
 Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.952 | $11.42 | Mar 18, 2025 |
 Arsenal wins the Premier League?No | sell | 11 | $0.981 | $10.79 | Mar 15, 2025 |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League?No | buy | 11 | $0.983 | $10.81 | Mar 14, 2025 |
 Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?No | sell | 12 | $0.959 | $11.51 | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?No | buy | 12 | $0.958 | $11.5 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 San José State vs. Utah StateUtah State | buy | 11 | $0.880 | $9.68 | Feb 18, 2025 |